January 2014

RPHC4: Population Projections

The results from the population projections demonstrate evidence that in the next 20 years Rwandan population will be considerably different in terms of size, structure and composition than it is currently.

The Rwandan population is projected to increase from 10.5 million in 2012 to 16.9 million (high scenario) to 16.3 million (medium scenario) or 15.4 million (low scenario) by 2032. The absolute difference between the assumption scenarios is trivial, which suggests that the future size of Rwandan population would be about approximately 50% more than the current population.

A direct consequence of this evolution is the unprecedented increase in population density, as high as 645 inhabitants per square kilometre according to the medium scenario. The population will be less young with the median age increasing from 19 years in 2012 to 24 in 2032. The percentage of the adult and the elderly aged 60 and above in the population will increase over time while the share of the children is expected to decline in the future.

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